馃洟 GEOPOLITICS: CRISIS IN VENEZUELA 馃洟
Perhaps all the glory of Venezuela, like that of many other Latin American countries, is between 1959 to 1983 after the nationalization of oil. After the WWII, Cold War created a mirage of abundance thanks to oil and proximity to the American sphere of influence. However, after the 80s crisis and the fall of the USSR, there was no need to protect the periphery from communism. Russia would now guarantee another source of cheap energy: natural gas. The monopoly of oil had finished.
During the best, Venezuela never invested in value-added and high-tech companies, squandering income on excesses that they justified as a "Welfare State." When neoliberalism emerged as a global economic model, the country suffered from a lack of competitive infrastructure. In 1989, the first social movements against the changes began. This was the breeding ground for Hugo Chavez to emerge as the leader who would promise to lift the country out of poverty.
In 1998, Hugo Chavez won the elections and started a "new model". All his verbiage seemed to work by taking advantage of the great oil bull market from 1999 to 2008 (the year of the great global financial crisis). The uncertainty of the price recovery from 2010 to 2014 allowed Nicol谩s Maduro to easily continue with the "Bolivarian Chavista Project" after his death.
From 2014 to the present, the Venezuelan diaspora began following the worsening of poverty, coinciding with low oil prices. The new problem now, is that there are no credible ways of democracy, in order to fix the political system. However, this is not a big problem for oil companies that are able to negotiate with a dictator if he favors them, or to install a democratic government if he does not give in.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, although it is the 10th largest OPEC producer. It means that whoever comes to power will be a puppet of the superpowers (included their current dictator), lacking high-value infrastructure. In fact, the next problem for country will be the "deals" of EXXON/CHEVRON in Esequibo. Could it be that the de facto elites caused Venezuelan poverty so that it would not have the capacity to negotiate?
In any case, Venezuela could have an impact on oil prices in the future. It is a member of OPEC, and at the same time, perhaps the next Ukraine or Gaza due to its nature as a regional conflict where many interest converge.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va9EHFk8fewujZelbM3t
https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
During the best, Venezuela never invested in value-added and high-tech companies, squandering income on excesses that they justified as a "Welfare State." When neoliberalism emerged as a global economic model, the country suffered from a lack of competitive infrastructure. In 1989, the first social movements against the changes began. This was the breeding ground for Hugo Chavez to emerge as the leader who would promise to lift the country out of poverty.
In 1998, Hugo Chavez won the elections and started a "new model". All his verbiage seemed to work by taking advantage of the great oil bull market from 1999 to 2008 (the year of the great global financial crisis). The uncertainty of the price recovery from 2010 to 2014 allowed Nicol谩s Maduro to easily continue with the "Bolivarian Chavista Project" after his death.
From 2014 to the present, the Venezuelan diaspora began following the worsening of poverty, coinciding with low oil prices. The new problem now, is that there are no credible ways of democracy, in order to fix the political system. However, this is not a big problem for oil companies that are able to negotiate with a dictator if he favors them, or to install a democratic government if he does not give in.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, although it is the 10th largest OPEC producer. It means that whoever comes to power will be a puppet of the superpowers (included their current dictator), lacking high-value infrastructure. In fact, the next problem for country will be the "deals" of EXXON/CHEVRON in Esequibo. Could it be that the de facto elites caused Venezuelan poverty so that it would not have the capacity to negotiate?
In any case, Venezuela could have an impact on oil prices in the future. It is a member of OPEC, and at the same time, perhaps the next Ukraine or Gaza due to its nature as a regional conflict where many interest converge.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va9EHFk8fewujZelbM3t
https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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