馃儚 2030: ORDO AB CHAOS 馃儚
As a receipt, after the excess, comes the chaos. Governments are overwhelmed due to the debt incurred in the pandemic and geopolitical tensions that shows the depletion of a hegemonic system. Democracy could be running out because China has shown that under totalitarianism (the dream of every elite), it is apparently possible to grow economically. Without a doubt, it is the perfect breeding ground for all oligarchy, totalitarianism and statism lovers.
After the party, comes the hangover. Europe is worried about the debt and the war with Russia, has made that its supplier of cheap energy is now an enemy. As a matter of fact, many commodity countries now form new blocs, the clearest example being the BRICS+. The result is that its Welfare State is unsustainable. The first country to reconfigure it was France.
Since 2018, France had demonstrations against the rise in prices (Yellow Vests). In January 2023, started against the Pension Reform, and in July, now the problem is the racism. In view of this, the government has imposed measures that control freedom of expression and transit. Likewise, protests against racism seem to spread little by little in Europe. Created or not, the pretext is laid out for future.
In other hand, the war in Ukraine has forced the reactivation of NATO, and with it, the establishment of a war economy. The excuses are served: need to reduce debt, social instability, protection against a potential foreign enemy (China or Russia), preserve democracy and freedom, loss of purchasing power, poverty, pollution, etc. In essence, the goal is:
1. Restriction of transit, spending and saving freedom (imposition of social scores)
2. Hypervigilance (control of the Internet, personal data and militarization of society)
3. Monetary restriction (imposition of digital governments currencies -CBDC-)
4. Increasing of taxes (Security and Defence will take the real benefit)
5. More state power over companies and economic activity (thanks to ESG criteria, eating, use and feel patterns, tariffs and taxes, prohibitions or any others utilitarian instruments dressed of social benefit)
6. Erase private property (all will be with subscriptions/leasing/rents increasing the dependence disguised as happiness and community sense)
7. Creation of alternative realities (thanks to IA and metaverse as evasion mechanism and inability to escape the system)
8. More state power in society (destabilization through extremist movements, criminal groups or emergency situation in order to people claims the intervention State)
9. Regional conflicts (to have a state of permanent panic and purify the old weapons and create new ones)
Meanwhile, in Latin America (LA) things might not be different. The developed world needs safe zones for its industry and the Nearshoring is the process that reflect this. To achieve it, social control will also be necessary: they are non-belligerent countries, but unstable in their rule of law. Perhaps, the best and proved formula is to support to dictators or populists with seemingly neutral governments to secure supply chains. People likes unsubstantiated social discourses and promises to appease; it is highly convenient to have populist allies or impost to some figure authoritarian. Either way, LA cold also flirt with China and get perks too. However, even it is more expedient to join China and BRICS, LA could once again its lost decades of state waste by taking advantage of economical spillover it will have.
The “new order” is going to be slow and the countries will adopt it progressively (some of these precepts are already running). Not matter which ideology people vote for, every government is aligned with the new reality because the establishment will always find puppets to control (political parties, charismatic and good leaders, dictators, criminal organisations, world institutions, good causes or any other scapegoats).
The “National Security” are going to be the tool that allows the above. In some sense, the Neoliberalism is over like the end of an era. The self-regulation of the markets (if there ever was one) has ended with the imposition of price controls, sanctions and protectionism measures against certain countries. Statism and nationalism have been reborn since 2018 with the trade war between US and China. If the outlook announces the need for a US military war against China, each country needs to be prepared for many decades of multipolarity.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
As a receipt, after the excess, comes the chaos. Governments are overwhelmed due to the debt incurred in the pandemic and geopolitical tensions that shows the depletion of a hegemonic system. Democracy could be running out because China has shown that under totalitarianism (the dream of every elite), it is apparently possible to grow economically. Without a doubt, it is the perfect breeding ground for all oligarchy, totalitarianism and statism lovers.
After the party, comes the hangover. Europe is worried about the debt and the war with Russia, has made that its supplier of cheap energy is now an enemy. As a matter of fact, many commodity countries now form new blocs, the clearest example being the BRICS+. The result is that its Welfare State is unsustainable. The first country to reconfigure it was France.
Since 2018, France had demonstrations against the rise in prices (Yellow Vests). In January 2023, started against the Pension Reform, and in July, now the problem is the racism. In view of this, the government has imposed measures that control freedom of expression and transit. Likewise, protests against racism seem to spread little by little in Europe. Created or not, the pretext is laid out for future.
In other hand, the war in Ukraine has forced the reactivation of NATO, and with it, the establishment of a war economy. The excuses are served: need to reduce debt, social instability, protection against a potential foreign enemy (China or Russia), preserve democracy and freedom, loss of purchasing power, poverty, pollution, etc. In essence, the goal is:
1. Restriction of transit, spending and saving freedom (imposition of social scores)
2. Hypervigilance (control of the Internet, personal data and militarization of society)
3. Monetary restriction (imposition of digital governments currencies -CBDC-)
4. Increasing of taxes (Security and Defence will take the real benefit)
5. More state power over companies and economic activity (thanks to ESG criteria, eating, use and feel patterns, tariffs and taxes, prohibitions or any others utilitarian instruments dressed of social benefit)
6. Erase private property (all will be with subscriptions/leasing/rents increasing the dependence disguised as happiness and community sense)
7. Creation of alternative realities (thanks to IA and metaverse as evasion mechanism and inability to escape the system)
8. More state power in society (destabilization through extremist movements, criminal groups or emergency situation in order to people claims the intervention State)
9. Regional conflicts (to have a state of permanent panic and purify the old weapons and create new ones)
Meanwhile, in Latin America (LA) things might not be different. The developed world needs safe zones for its industry and the Nearshoring is the process that reflect this. To achieve it, social control will also be necessary: they are non-belligerent countries, but unstable in their rule of law. Perhaps, the best and proved formula is to support to dictators or populists with seemingly neutral governments to secure supply chains. People likes unsubstantiated social discourses and promises to appease; it is highly convenient to have populist allies or impost to some figure authoritarian. Either way, LA cold also flirt with China and get perks too. However, even it is more expedient to join China and BRICS, LA could once again its lost decades of state waste by taking advantage of economical spillover it will have.
The “new order” is going to be slow and the countries will adopt it progressively (some of these precepts are already running). Not matter which ideology people vote for, every government is aligned with the new reality because the establishment will always find puppets to control (political parties, charismatic and good leaders, dictators, criminal organisations, world institutions, good causes or any other scapegoats).
The “National Security” are going to be the tool that allows the above. In some sense, the Neoliberalism is over like the end of an era. The self-regulation of the markets (if there ever was one) has ended with the imposition of price controls, sanctions and protectionism measures against certain countries. Statism and nationalism have been reborn since 2018 with the trade war between US and China. If the outlook announces the need for a US military war against China, each country needs to be prepared for many decades of multipolarity.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
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