🗺️ ALLIANCES: TOWARDS WW III 🗺️
The US must strike before China does. However, nobody can attack before they have relocated their strategic industry into friendly territories. That is why the world alliances have been increasing and being more relevant. In the short term, the odds do not show any direct confrontation, only some minor wars of attrition in peripheral countries. The immediate example is the conflicts in West Europe (Ukraine) or Africa, but Latin America is also undermined by the destabilisation movements of transnational organised crime and their politicians who manage it.
The big problem is that former Western allies may have no real desire to be loyal in the future. American Pax is over and China has known capitalise it. While the classical American political guidance was invasions and violence, the Chinese is about trade and cordial relations (so far). The result is the world division that evoques the Cold War times. In fact, for the first time again, there are a sort of "Balance of Power" [USA vs China].
The chart shows the current military and political alliances and its relative power based on their PIB total sum (last data known). The main idea is to know their relative economic strength of political chess. Economic power among NATO or the G7 is similar to the BRICS or SCO.
Despite the OAS has a large share (similar to AUKUS or QUAD), it is thanks to the USA and Canada. In fact, LATAM has a minimal participation, with OPEC, ASEAN or the Commonwealth. The EU remains stronger than the others, but it might not be enough compared to the G7, BRICS, SCO, QUAD or AUKUS.
It is worth noting that even if some countries are part of a weak alliance, they may have great power derived from raw materials or their scientific and technological capacity. In the first case would be OPEP, LATAM or Africa. However, there are other that mix both sides or more the scientific or tech; it is the case of China, USA, Australia, Russia, India, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France or Israel (as a big exception).
The world has changed and is shifting towards strong militarization and nationalisms. It is therefore necessary to analyse other forms and patterns of alliances than the typical ones. For this reason, other alliances that could change global geopolitics will be postulated in future posts. The idea is to imagine and build a world in transition.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
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