馃搻馃搹 OIL: THE REASON FOR MANY WARS 馃搹馃搻
It is not surprising to anyone that oil is the real cause of many wars after World War II. The loss of US hegemony will push many borders to change. In the past, the U.S. had not had any problems with Saudi Arabia and was a great ally (they set up the Saudi monarchy in 1945). In Iraq, Saddam Hussein (supported by the US in 1980) fought against the predecessor Arab nationalist government and Iran, but at some point, he revealed himself and created a tense relationship with Washington. Meanwhile, Iran was favorable to the U.S. until the 1979 Islamic revolution, when it lost control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The 1970s was a tough decade. Israel (the economic support of the USA), after securing its position vis-脿-vis Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon in 1973, created great tension with the Muslim world and oil to the present. To this was added by the religious factor. Therefore, suddenly and unexpectedly, the US-Israel binomial had enemies: OPEC and, above all, Iran. Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001) were depleted for the time being.
This is important to understand the logic of some wars that seem far away. If the top 10 oil producing countries are the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Iraq, China, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, Brazil and Kuwait, is curious that Iran is always labeled as an enemy. It certainly needs no further explanation as the reader can infer it.
Any problem in Persian Gulf may affect to international oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz is strategic. Another oil crisis like the 1970s may be less likely (history does not repeat itself twice exactly the same), but another impact on the supply chain is likely, and Hormuz and Iran are key. At least, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are pro-USA, but they are minor players in OPEC.
The US has tried to negotiate and re-establish relations because it realizes it might not win them over, but it has 2 new problems. Iran is now China's ally and a member of BRICS+ (with Saudi Arabia and Egypt), and Israel wants to fight Iran for its security, and suddenly, it has "reasons" [see: https://t.co/63opE6j7Xv & https://t.co/Y9pwW53RGX ]. The puzzle is far from over. Someone knows all before the events, if not.... Why 1 year ago was Europe busy looking to stock up on radioactive drugs? What if instead of Russia, Israel is the first to use the weaponry for profit under a preemptive threat?
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
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