馃幇 SP500: APPRECIATION PROBABILITIES 馃幇

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馃幇 SP500: APPRECIATION PROBABILITIES 馃幇

Recent times are marked by the war for control of the "New Silk Road" and Gaza's gas reserves, erroneously called "Israel vs. Palestine War". Today fear is winning due to the risk of nuclear war and the beginning of weak economic data due to inflation and interest rates. However, in the SP500, is very likely that the bottom has been already watched in ≈ 4,107 pts in the medium and long term. The market needs a growth or lateralization movement to fall with the next rate cut and a possible recession (expected between 0.5 and 5 years after the last rate hike with the inversion of the 10-year Treasury curve against to the Treasury for 2 years).

The chart shows the probabilities of appreciation of each sector, based on returns from the last 1-year, 3-year and 5-year. Of all, the Real Estate and Utilities sector continues to show good momentum with lower risks at any time frame. In the short term, Energy, Financial, Staples and Health Care has a nice momentum. In the medium term, Discretionary and Communications might be optimal.

From a speculative view and subject to new data, the classic division between the term of 1 and 5 years is due to the fluctuation of energy. Specifically, it could anticipate the behavior of a future inflationary shock, where perhaps the pretext will be the inevitable war in the Middle East between USrael (USA + Israel) and Chissia (China + Russia), but which mathematics already predicted.

Finally, if all of the above is true, it could officially be the start of a new crash cycle with a stagflationary decade predicted from 2030 to 2045 [ https://t.co/rfvuugPyEZ ]. Today, the system needs to inject fear. Crises happen when few expect it and there seems to be no sign of it; Now everything would be very obvious. States need to reach excess debt and make people think that a new paradigm of infinite wealth has been created.

J. Joel Padilla




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