馃槇 BITCOIN: BULL/BEAR TRAP? 馃槇
The SEC approves the Bitcoin ETF, which does not mean it approves or endorses BTC. The big problem, like many others where large financial institutions intervene, is that if BTC was shown as the asset of freedom, it will no longer be (perhaps it never was). In fact, the system (financial and governmental) needs to absorb any type of cryptocurrency in order to set its final objective: annihilate freedom via the implementation of the CBDC.
Understanding the above is crucial to understanding what is behind BTC in the future. As I warned several times in the past, BTC will crash, but not now. BTC needs to absorb a large number of world citizens who sought to escape State Control (CBDC). Meanwhile, the system needs to initiate a severe phase of institutionalized accumulation by approving instruments linked to them. It is not bad at all because could let to trade with derivatives in Wall Street. This scenario could happen in 15-25 years, where could coincide with the end of a potential lost decade [see: https://t.co/rfvuugPyEZ ]
Nevertheless, the BTC fever has returned and many managers and institutions affirm this great future... Of course, the establishment always advises the best so that strangers can get rich. Most likely, like any other time where BTC peaked, the 2024 highs are at ≈ $50,000 USD and the distribution phase has begun despite its halving. If BTC wants to keep its trend clean, it should return to ≈ $28,000 in the next 3 years to reach new all-time highs. At least, there are elements that make not clear the BTC future in the 2024 - 2025 [see: https://t.co/caaX81Mgch ]
Finally, there are chances of BTC reaching ≈ $65,000. The problem with this thesis is that starting at $42,500 (17/01/24), there is a marginal profitability of 50% that if compared to its volatility, there is a lot of risk. In fact, if this happen, it could be the same bull trap of Gold and its triple top, where also will not break all-time highs without first falling abruptly. Furthermore, if many institutions control it, the typical BTC volatility that everyone loved for its returns will likely be erased over time (holders > volatility).
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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