⚗️馃尵 COMMODITIES: APPRECIATION PROBABILITIES 馃尵⚗️
The year has started and some geopolitical processes might impact on the commodities prices and inflation in 2024. It is likely that the war in Ukraine and Gaza finishes. As I warned you, Russia will win in the first case [see: https://t.co/sb5Z6HnVYU ]. In the second, the international community may pressure for a temporary cessation of the genocide, given that the USrael binomial [USA + Israel] is no longer hegemonic over the BRICS+. However, there already are many open battle fronts (Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, West Bank, Syria, Irak and Iran) that could explode and provoke another damage in the energy supply chain.
The above makes sense given the high probability of appreciation in 1 year versus 5 years. In fact, if many presidential elections are held in 2024, something could happen in 2025. This could reinforce the hypothesis that a new inflationary shock is possible and the 1-year and 3-year probabilities are noted in advance [see: https://t.co/caaX81Mgch ].
In general terms, many of commodities have more than 50% of probabilities of appreciation in the next 1 to 3 years. There are very few elements that do not seem to have high inflationary expectations. The graph shows its probabilities according their time frame.
In other hand, in 2024 the BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are ready to start operations. They control many of the energy resources and others. In fact, currently there is a list of other possible candidates: Algeria, Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe; Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, North Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and Serbia. If this becomes a reality, BRICS+ could have the greatest control of many materials.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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