馃 CROWDSTRIKE: DERIVATIVES TRADING 馃
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.[CRWD] provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform offers cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, SIEM and log management, threat intelligence, data protection, security orchestration, automation and response and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules.
Insights:
- P/S ratio greater than ≈ 15, where 13 is the lowest and 70 is the highest
- PER ratio greater than ≈ 50x
- Increase in annual income of ≈ 50% with high gross profit, but in the last 2 quarters they have been their first profits
- Correlation with SP500 [SPY] of ≈ 59.3%, where their behaviour only could be explained by ≈ 35.2% in the last year [LTM]
- Beta with SP500 [SPY: Benchmark] of ≈ 2.16
- "Curious" massive buy/sell ratio on 21/June/24, at its peak price
- "Curious" programming error on 19/07/24... One week later of Trump's attempt
Based on its last EPS [25/05/24 TTM] of ≈ $0.55 USD and a 250 Forward PER and a sensibility of ± 0.437x annual, a hypothetical spread could be (ceteris paribus):
- High: ≈ $ 197.58 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 137.5 USD
- Down: ≈ $ 77.40 USD
Hypothesis
CRWD in the next 6 months (perhaps 12), might have a distribution phase above ≈ $297 USD and an accumulation phase below ≈ $216 USD where there is a strong bearish bias due to its valuations, other quantitative parameters and "curious" events, where their future might be similar to CloudFlare.
Hedge plan example:
- Call [sell]: $390 USD
- Call [sell]: $300 USD
- Put [buy]: $210 USD
- Put [sell]: $130 USD
Risks
- Prices higher than $300 for a long time
- Prices lower than $130 for a long time.
- The neutral price of $260 or $255 is not reached at expiration
- Roll over costs (if time is not well estimated)
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
Insights:
- P/S ratio greater than ≈ 15, where 13 is the lowest and 70 is the highest
- PER ratio greater than ≈ 50x
- Increase in annual income of ≈ 50% with high gross profit, but in the last 2 quarters they have been their first profits
- Correlation with SP500 [SPY] of ≈ 59.3%, where their behaviour only could be explained by ≈ 35.2% in the last year [LTM]
- Beta with SP500 [SPY: Benchmark] of ≈ 2.16
- "Curious" massive buy/sell ratio on 21/June/24, at its peak price
- "Curious" programming error on 19/07/24... One week later of Trump's attempt
Based on its last EPS [25/05/24 TTM] of ≈ $0.55 USD and a 250 Forward PER and a sensibility of ± 0.437x annual, a hypothetical spread could be (ceteris paribus):
- High: ≈ $ 197.58 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 137.5 USD
- Down: ≈ $ 77.40 USD
Hypothesis
CRWD in the next 6 months (perhaps 12), might have a distribution phase above ≈ $297 USD and an accumulation phase below ≈ $216 USD where there is a strong bearish bias due to its valuations, other quantitative parameters and "curious" events, where their future might be similar to CloudFlare.
Hedge plan example:
- Call [sell]: $390 USD
- Call [sell]: $300 USD
- Put [buy]: $210 USD
- Put [sell]: $130 USD
Risks
- Prices higher than $300 for a long time
- Prices lower than $130 for a long time.
- The neutral price of $260 or $255 is not reached at expiration
- Roll over costs (if time is not well estimated)
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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