⚗️ DOW INC: DERIVATIVES TRADING ⚗️
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments.
Insights:
- P/S ratio near to 0.7x, currently it is in line with the median
- EV/EBITDA ration near to 6.9, more or less in line with the median
- Correlation with MSCI Global Markets [SPGM] of ≈ 15.2%, where their behaviour only could be explained by ≈ 2.3% in the last year [LTM]
- Beta with MSCI Global Markets [SPGM] of ≈ 0.25
- Chemical Industry may have a hard months due to its bearish bias and its slightly expensive valuation. However, it may be an opportunity due to world public expenditure expansion and re-industrialization process linked to nearshoring. In addition, their dividend program could compensate some losses.
Based on its last EPS [24/10/24 TTM] of ≈ $1.49 MXN and a 30 Forward PER and a sensibility of ± 0.1916x annual, a hypothetical spread could be (ceteris paribus):
- High: ≈ $ 53.26 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 44.70 USD
- Down: ≈ $ 36.13 USD
Hypothesis
DOW in the next >12 (perhaps 16) months, might have a strong distribution phase above ≈ $ 68 USD and a strong accumulation phase below ≈ $ 41 USD where there is a bearish bias due to its revaluation probabilities and other quantitative parameters
Hedge plan example:
- Call [sell]: $68 USD
- Call [sell]: $59 USD
- Put [buy]: $48 USD
- Put [sell]: $41 USD
Risks
- Prices higher than $70 / $59 for a long time
- Prices lower than $41 for a long time.
- The neutral price of ≈ $53.5 is not reached at expiration
- Roll over costs (if time is not well estimated)
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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