馃獧 BITCOIN: WHAT TO EXPECT? 馃獧
Over the past few months, Bitcoin [BTC] has been reaching new highs and its popularity is resurging. Right now, there are many funds and people who trust it. In fact, some voices have begun to point out that BTC could be a "safe asset" against the depreciation of FIAT money [see: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/2024/12/what-could-happen-if-bitcoin-is-used-as.html ]. Others, on the other hand, argue that it is just another speculative asset like any other, which needs to be monitored from time to time.
Meanwhile, looking at monthly returns from January 2015 to December 2024, the most volatile months have been May and November. January, September, August and March were the months with negative average returns. In contrast, October and February had the hights average returns. All months had more or less the same bearish volatility, but only November and perhaps April and July, had high bullish volatility compared to their positive average returns. August seems being the worst month in terms of average returns and bullish volatility.
Other curious things... From only their lowest points after crashes, in the first time BTC increased from $200 USD to $3,200 USD by 1,500%, and from $3,200 USD to $15,700 USD by 390%; that was a deaccelerating rate of -73.9%. From only their higher points, in the first time BTC increased from $19,500 USD to $69,000 USD by 253.8%, the rest is unknown because we don't know here will be the next hight. From their lowest to highest point, in the first time BTC increased from $200 USD to $19,500 USD by 9,650%, and from $3,200 to $69,000 by 2056%, that was a deaccelerating rate of -78.7%. In addition, its largest falls had been -83.5% and -77.2%, with a deceleration rate of -7.6%.
Finally, it is virtually impossible to forecast the price with certitude. Nevertheless, if we play to "prophesize" the new high before the next crash considering all the above in a model, we have to set an hypothetical the future bottom. It is hard, but... Based on an idyllical scenario where the new big support is going to be at $35,000 USD, with the above variables constant, the new high will be between $114,000 USD and $122,000 USD... Let's see in the future how much the forecast failed!
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2024
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