馃Э PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES: ANALYSIS 馃Э
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the US, the UK, and internationally. Palantir Gotham is a software platform which enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. It also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. Palantir Apollo is a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLM) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents.
Based on a sample of the last year [Dec/24 TTM], its average margins have been:
- Gross margin: ≈ 81.0%
- Operating margin: ≈ 11.2%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 13.4%
- Net margin: ≈ 16.8%
- Debt Net / EBITDA: ≈ 0x
Pros:
- High expectations due to state intervention and government espionage policies
- Zero net debt
- ¿?
Cons:
- Reduction of CAPEX (its main development engine)
- Deterioration of margins, which are also not exceptional with respect to the sector (inefficient by OPEX)
- Extremely high valuation, not investment grade, just speculative
Based on the last report, their normalized annual EPS was ≈ $0.2 USD and its last average ROIC [TTM] was ≈ 6.05%. If an annual average Forward PER 60 is set as a benchmark with an EPS intensity of ± 0.7901x, the potential forward spread target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $89.74 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $50.13 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $10.52 USD
At least, an EPS of $0.0428 USD is required for the next quarter, to keep the metrics.
In other hand, if an annual average Forward EV/EBITDA 150 is set, an EBITDA increases of ± 400%, a Net Debt increases of 0%, a Dividends increase of 0% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 4.51%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $86.25 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $23.06 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $1.00 USD
Finally, according to its current P/S ratio, a possible spread for the next 12 months might be at:
- P/S 100: ≈ $124.3 USD
- P/S 10: ≈ $12.43 USD
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J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2025
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