馃毃 WILL THERE BE A FINANCIAL CRASH? 馃毃
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
It is true that the current situation of financial institutions seems the same as the 2008 crisis, but now bankers and governments have acted differently. Any crisis begins with exactly the same causes of the past. Sure, it could have a crisis, but the causes will be different. There is panic because people could run for their money; banks do not have enough for that, but now, there is liquidity boosted by central banks and governments (quantitative easing).
By other hand, the types curve may suggest a recession. It happens when the short-term interest rate of 2-year US Bonds is higher than the long-terms interest rate of 10-year US Bonds. The graph shows that curve; if the curve is lower than 0, the risk is on. Statically, when it occurs, the recession come in less than 2 years. May be, now it will be different if the new "Cold War" or "Warm Peace" has begun. That means: the restoration of the State for its survival, otherwise the old system that we have known since Westphalia (1648) would collapse.
In that sense, perhaps the most delicate is the surrounding situation. Inflation, no growth and this planned turbulence are being the passport to the "new" State-Capitalist. It might not be anything new to what has already been experienced in other decades. The problem is that now, this seeks to take control of physical money through digital currencies with pretexts such as avoiding another liquidity crisis, "boost" the system or avoiding the accumulation of wealth (it has never happened, but the population always thinks it can be like that now). Obviously, the lack of freedom always hurts the lower and middle class; the elites never suffer.
The best analysis is yours!
By other hand, the types curve may suggest a recession. It happens when the short-term interest rate of 2-year US Bonds is higher than the long-terms interest rate of 10-year US Bonds. The graph shows that curve; if the curve is lower than 0, the risk is on. Statically, when it occurs, the recession come in less than 2 years. May be, now it will be different if the new "Cold War" or "Warm Peace" has begun. That means: the restoration of the State for its survival, otherwise the old system that we have known since Westphalia (1648) would collapse.
In that sense, perhaps the most delicate is the surrounding situation. Inflation, no growth and this planned turbulence are being the passport to the "new" State-Capitalist. It might not be anything new to what has already been experienced in other decades. The problem is that now, this seeks to take control of physical money through digital currencies with pretexts such as avoiding another liquidity crisis, "boost" the system or avoiding the accumulation of wealth (it has never happened, but the population always thinks it can be like that now). Obviously, the lack of freedom always hurts the lower and middle class; the elites never suffer.
The best analysis is yours!
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
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