☢️ ENERGY SECURITY: WHO CONTROLS URANIUM PRODUCTION? ☢️
Based on estimations from World Nuclear Association, in 2022, the ± 73% of uranium production was controlled by only 6 countries (Kazakhstan, Namibia, Canada, Australia, Uzbekistan and Russia), and 12 countries control ± 90% of total production. The top 20 is:
Rank | Country | tonnes U | %
1 Kazakhstan 21,819 -> 38%
2 Namibia 5,753 -> 10%
3 Canada 4,693 -> 8%
4 Australia 4,192 -> 7%
5 Uzbekistan 3,500 -> 6%
6 Russia 2,635 -> 5%
7 Niger 2,248 -> 4%
8 China 1,885 -> 3%
9 United States 1,750 -> 3%
10 Brazil 1,600 -> 3%
11 Mongolia 1,360 -> 2%
12 South Africa 1,100 -> 2%
13 Ukraine 1,000 -> 2%
14 Portugal 850 -> 1%
15 Malawi 750 -> 1%
16 Tanzania 700 -> 1%
17 Ghana 650 -> 1%
18 Jordan 600 -> 1%
19 India 550 -> 1%
20 Czech Republic 500 -> 1%
The relevance of uranium is linked to the changing energy paradigm. If oil and gas are reduced, the only clean and sufficiently powerful source of energy is nuclear. Although plutonium or thorium are being used and developed, uranium is the main one.
If the map and data are analyzed, only 6 of the 20 countries have strong affinities and military alliances with the US, and the other 14 might have some affinity with China or be relatively neutral. That is, the pro-US bloc controls about ± 23% of production, and ± 77% is controlled by the pro-China bloc. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Sudafrica) controls the ± 13% of total. Africa (Namibia, Niger, Sudafrica, Malaui, Tanzania and Ghana), the continent punished by the powers and the West, controls the ± 19% of production.
The positive is that uranium is not strongly correlated (> 50%) with others energy commodities. Based in a weekly data of 3 years with ETFs, the correlation between uranium and gold is ± 37%, with WTI is ± 35%, with Natural Gas ± 13%, with Coal is ± 37%, and ± 48% with S&P 500. That might suggest uranium use as an alternative to attenuate the cyclicality of other materials... Could be formed a cartel like OPEP+ with the uranium in the future?
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
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