馃獤馃椇 UKRAINE: THE END OF THE WAR? 馃椇馃獤
The war has lasted longer than expected. Any advanced tactical military movement takes few steps to get the control in the camp. Any advanced strategical military movement takes few steps to siege and win any zone. Ukraine has none of that and only survives thanks to European and American arms scraps (without it, it would have lost by now), while Russia does its "best" (somewhat clumsy) effort where its real power is due to energy resources, threats to use its nuclear weaponry and its big Chinese godfather.
Ukraine will be divided; that is what I have argued from the beginning as the most likely scenario. On this occasion, the West's provocations will not be successful, they have also lost power. Whatever the scenario, Michael Bloomberg, Larry Fink and Bill Ackman expressed interest in investing in the reconstruction of Ukraine. At least someone seems to know something.
After 20 months, the hands that rock the cradle are getting bored because there are most important things like blaming the citizen for all the problems and to be insensitive to the pain of others. In fact, the reconstruction of Ukraine could be the pretext to achieve a "soft landing" once global interest rates come down. 2024-2025 seems the perfect time to have turbulences [see why: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/2023/03/will-there-be-financial-crash.html ]. The underlying question is, will the war last until then?
The exact answer I do not know. However, it may be the perfect time to look at some companies that could be involved in Ukrainian reconstruction. The next is only an example that have some relevant sectors in this task: industrial, Basic Materials, Tech and Financial. The weight was considering its average ROIC from the last 5 years.
Caterpillar 10.23%
Flour Corp 1.67%
Jacobs Engineering 5.52%
KBR 8.87%
AECOM 5.43%
Parsons Corp 4.28%
Tetra Tech 11.67%
Stantec 6.71%
WSP Global 6.45%
SNC-Lavalin 1.09%
ArcelorMittal 9.46%
Heidelberg Materials 5.27%
Saint-Gobain 6.46%
Microsoft 27.95%
Google 27.63%
CISCO 15.32%
JP Morgan 1.75%
Goldsman Sachs 3.02%
BlackRock Inc 3.21%
Citi 1.00%
The most important thing is to raise awareness and keep future players on the radar. This may be a critical thing to Europe because could be on the eve of its debacle: its industry is fleeing, it will not have cheap resources, it has problems with migration and its war priority could undermine investment in other strategic areas.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023
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