🧸 SP500: BEARISH CYCLES AND SUB-CYCLES 🧸

🧸 SP500: BEARISH CYCLES AND SUB-CYCLES 🧸

After the great reset of 1929, the US market has a big winner thanks to its victory in the World Wars and its hegemony after the 1970s. In this almost 100-year time frame, there were 2 bear cycles and 5 sub-cycles. This are:

Bearish cycle (13-year)

- Jan, 1937 to Apr, 1950

Bearish sub-cycle

- Jul, 1956 to Ago, 1958 (2-year)

- Jul, 1959 to Nov, 1962 (3-year)

Bearish cycle (14-year)

- Nov, 1968 to Jul, 1982

Bearish sub-cycle

- Sep, 1987 to Dec, 1990 (3-year)

Bearish cycle (13-year)

- Sep, 2000 to Mar, 2013

Bearish sub-cycle?

- Dec, 2021 to 2024? (3-year)

Bullish cycle (18-year)

- Apr, 1950 to Nov, 1968

Bullish cycle (18-year)

- Jul, 1982 to Sep, 2000

Bullish cycle (18-year)?

- Mar, 2013 to 2031?

Based on an empirical analysis, bearish sub-cycles usually last on average 3 years and major cycles 13 years. In contrast, the great bullish cycles have lasted 18 years on average. What is interesting is the homogeneity of times taken into considering the super cycles in interest rates [learns more about it: https://t.co/rfvuugPyEZ ].

Due to the above, it is possible that the current bearish sub-cycle that began in December 2021 will end in ≈ 2024. So sometime in 2024 could be the perfect moment to wait for a new super bull cycle until ≈ 2031. Of course, they are only reference and estimated values, which have been argued and explained in Joel Padilla's posts [ https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/ ].

The best analysis is yours!

J. Joel Padilla

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/

https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/

Copyright: Joel Padilla 2023

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