🛢️🪖 MOGA: MAKE OIL GREAT AGAIN 🪖🛢️
No wonder the whole Green Agenda and ESG criteria are dead. It is not just about the expansionist desires of the US in the Gulf of Mexico and Greenland for oil in the first case, but also for natural gas and rare earths in the second. It is the transition to an era of "new imperialism". Indeed, China has announced its policy of re-adopting coal since about 2021.
In this imperialist era, the need for “cheap” energy is urgent. Interestingly, since 2018, the construction of natural gas plants for export begun in the US... Did they know that Europe would fight against Russia and that they would no longer have "cheap" energy, and that the US could take on the "dealer role"?
Although this seems to indicate the abandonment of clean energies, it could actually be part of the new energy paradigm, exposed by Joel Padilla [see: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/2024/11/new-paradigm-of-energy-in-nations.html ]. In this sense, controlling fossil fuels can guarantee cheap energy, but it can also limit the development of countries with imperialist aspirations in this era in which hegemonic power has disappeared. In a sense of survival, if you cannot get more power, at least you have to limit it to the rest.
On the other hand, if more people focus on oil production (erasing OPEC Cartel), the price could fall thanks to the expansion of supply. The problem is that demand tends to be increased by IA consumption, data, etc. That is why the nuclear energy are also going to be relevant. The graph shows historical prices, where half of the increase was from 1900 to 1977, and the other half until today. Over the 124 years, assuming arithmetic returns, the annual increase was 3.84% (this could be the US average inflation).
The trend seems to be on the rise. In the future, oil should be at $1,000 for another bullish period like 1900-1977 or 1977-2022. However, the most interesting is to think whether a drop to $10 would be possible (at least, SAUDI ARAMCO could bear it). It seems impossible, but the world is not immune to another Great Depression with population decline; or minimum to $31.62 USD, the half between $10 USD and $100 USD (logarithmic scale). Finally, many decades in the $100 range could also be possible. What do you think about?
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2025
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