馃尳 GRUMA: DERIVATIVES TRADING 馃尳
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells corn flour, tortillas, corn chips, and other related products in the United States, Mexico, Europe, Central America, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States), Corn Flour Division (Mexico), Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe), and Other segments.
Margins LTM [22/10/25]:
- Gross margin: ≈ 39.4%
- Operating margin: ≈ 14.1%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 16.8%
- Net margin: ≈ 8.6%
- ROIC: ≈ 16.5%
Insights:
- P/S ratio near to 1x, currently it is in line with the average
- EV/EBITDA ratio near to 6.8, more or less with the median
- PER ratio near to 11, the lowest level in years
- Drop in revenue over the last 2 years and drop in Cash from Operations over last year
- Slowdown in EPS growth YoY
- Acceptable and strong margins and ROIC
Based on its last EPS [22/10/25 TTM] of ≈ $29.03 MXN and a 11 Forward PER and a sensibility of ± 0.1733x annual, a hypothetical spread could be (ceteris paribus):
- High: ≈ $ 408.7 MXN
- Neutral: ≈ $ 348.3 MXN
- Down: ≈ $ 287.9 MXN
Hypothesis
GRUMAB in the next >12 (perhaps 16) months, might have a strong distribution phase above ≈ $386 MXN and a strong accumulation phase below ≈ $285 MXN where there is a bearish bias due to its revaluation probabilities and other quantitative parameters
Hedge plan example:
- Call [sell]: $386 MXN
- Call [buy]: $350 MXN
- Put [sell]: $300 MXN
- Put [sell]: $285 MXN
Risks
- Prices higher than $386 for a long time
- Prices lower than $300 for a long time.
- The neutral price of ≈ $328 is not reached at expiration
- Roll over costs (if time is not well estimated)
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2025
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