🥇🥈 GOLD / SILVER RATIO 🥈🥇
In recent years, governments around the world, especially Russia and China, have increased their gold holdings. The reason is simple: currency devaluation following excessive debt and the collapse of the US dollar system due to a lack of confidence (the end of US Pax). This has pushed the price of gold to its best performance in the last 20 years, compared to the 1970s or so.
In this game, silver is a relevant player. While gold is the standard, silver can also follow some of gold's fluctuations, but with a more volatile pattern. If forecasting the price of gold is difficult, forecasting silver is even more so. The two have a ≈75% correlation in their returns, with gold's returns accounting for ≈ 52% of silver's returns (based on a sample from August 1982 to December 2025 with monthly data).
In the 43-year sample, the gold-to-silver price ratio has fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The maximum has been 112x, the minimum 32x, and the average 68x. However, the range between 90x and 50x is more frequent. If the same metrics are maintained in the coming years, some levels can be plotted.
If it is taken the last high gold price of $4,465 USD [22/12/25], the levels could be:
- 90x ratio = $49.61 USD silver price
- 68x ratio = $65.66 USD silver price
- 50x ratio = $89.3 USD silver price
If it is taken the last high silver price of $68.95 USD [22/12/25], the levels could be:
- 90x ratio = $ 6,205.5 USD gold price
- 68x ratio = $ 4,688.6 USD gold price
- 50x ratio = $ 3,447.5 USD gold price
This hypothetic prices ara based on the average ratios, but future and the new State Interventionist Era could change everything. If governments give more power to metal as collateral for their currencies, lower ratios may be more likely.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
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Copyright: Joel Padilla 2025
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