馃崝馃崯 MCDONALD'S CORP: DERIVATIVES TRADING 馃崯馃崝
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions.
Margins LTM [09/05/26]:
- Gross margin: ≈ 65.2%
- Operating margin: ≈ 46.3%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 54.4%
- Net margin: ≈ 31.6%
- ROIC: ≈ 17.7%
- Debt Net / EBITDA: ≈ 3.5x
Insights:
- P/S ratio near to 7x, currently it is in line with the average
- EV/EBITDA ratio near to 16.8x, slightly lower from the median
- PER ratio near to 23x, the lowest level in years
- Stagnation in FCF for a 2-year sample
- Slightly increases in EPS growth YoY
- Acceptable and strong margins and ROIC
Based on its last EPS [09/05/26 TTM] of ≈ $12.18 USD and a 25 Forward PER and a sensibility of ± 0.1612x annual, a hypothetical spread could be (ceteris paribus):
- High: ≈ $ 353.6 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 304.5 USD
- Down: ≈ $ 255.4 USD
Hypothesis
MCD in the next >12 (perhaps 16) months, might have a strong distribution phase above ≈ $310 MXN and a strong accumulation phase below ≈ $285 MXN where there is a bullish bias due to its revaluation probabilities and other quantitative parameters
:::> It could be an acceptable risk to take
Hedge plan example:
- Call [sell]: $330 MXN
- Call [buy]: $310 MXN
- Put [sell]: $285 MXN
- Put [sell]: $270 MXN
Risks
- Prices higher than $285 for a long time
- Prices lower than $330 for a long time.
- The neutral price of ≈ $307.5 is not reached at expiration
- Roll over costs (if time is not well estimated)
- Not revaluation of strategy each 6 months
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J. Joel Padilla
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Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
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