🟩 NVIDIA: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 🟩
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics.
Based on a sample of the last year [30/08/26 TTM], its average margins have been:
- Gross margin: ≈ 74.6%
- Operating margin: ≈ 65.0%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 66.2%
- Net margin: ≈ 63.1%
- Debt Net / EBITDA: ≈ 0.0x
- FCF margin: ≈ 61.4%
- FCF conversion: ≈ 94.6%
- FCF coverage: ≈ ---%
- CAPEX/FCF: ≈ 4.33%
- CAPEX per share: ≈ $0.27 USD
- EPS: ≈ $7.96 USD
- EPS diluted: ≈ $7.68 USD
Pros:
- High demand for AI chips
- Healthy and stronger financial ratios
- Healthy Net Debt
Cons:
- Sector linked to the economic cycle and periods of extreme volatility
- Margins distorted due to recent growth rates.
- Possibility that China get similar computing power than Nvidia with less advanced chips
According to the last previous report, their normalized annual EPS was ≈ $7.96 USD and its last average ROIC [TTM] was ≈ 70.7%. If an annual Forward PER 30 is set up as a benchmark with an EPS intensity of ± 0.3249x, the potential forward spread target for the next ≈ 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $ 303.8 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 238.8 USD
- Negative: ≈ $ 179.7 USD
At least, an EPS of $1.34 USD is required for the next quarter, to keep the metrics.
If an annal Forward EV/EBITDA 25 is set, an EBITDA increases of ± 134%, a Net Debt increases of ± 0.00%, a Dividends increase of 0.0% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.75%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $ 427.8 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 209.5 USD
- Negative: ≈ $ 0.00 USD
If an annual average Forward EV/FCF 25 is set, and FCF rate change of ± 62.5% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.0%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $ 350.5 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 215.5 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $ 80.6 USD
Finally, the JJPL spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $ 356.3 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $ 221.3 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $ 90.2 USD
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
▶️ Blog: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
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