🍾💍 LVMH ANALYSIS 💍🍾
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a luxury goods company worldwide. The company offers wine and spirit products under the Ao Yun, Ardbeg, Armand de Brignac, Belvedere, Bodega Numanthia, Chandon, Cheval des Andes, Château Cheval Blanc, Château Galoupet, Château d'Yquem, Château d'Esclans, Cloudy Bay, Colgin Cellars, Dom Pérignon, Domaine des Lambrays, Eminente, Glenmorangie, Hennessy, Joseph Phelps, Krug, Mercier, Minuty, Moët & Chandon, Newton Vineyard, Ruinart, SirDavis, Terrazas de los Andes, Veuve Clicquot, Volcan de mi Tierra, and Woodinville brands; fashion and leather products under Barton Perreira,Berluti, Celine, Christian Dior, Fendi, Givenchy, Kenzo, Loewe, Loro Piana, Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Moynat, Patou, Pucci, Rimowa, and Vuarnet brands; and perfumes and cosmetics products under the Acqua di Parma, Benefit Cosmetics, Cha Ling, Fenty Beauty by Rihanna, Fresh, Givenchy Parfums, Guerlain, KVD Beauty, Kenzo Parfums, Loewe Perfumes, Maison Francis Kurkdjian, Make Up For Ever, OLEHENRIKSEN, Officine Universelle Buly, and Parfums Christian Dior brands. It also provides watches and jewelry under the Bvlgari, Chaumet, Daniel Roth, Fred, Gérald Genta, Hublot, L'Epée 1839, Repossi, TAG Heuer, Tiffany & Co., and Zenith brands; and selective retailing under the 24S, DFS, La Grande Épicerie de Paris, Le Bon Marché Rive Gauche, Samaritaine, and Sephora brands. In addition, the company offers french business and cultural news publications.
Based on a sample of the last year [4Q/25 TTM], its average margins have been:
- Gross margin: ≈ 66.3%
- Operating margin: ≈ 21.9%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 25.5%
- Net margin: ≈ 13.5%
- Debt Net / EBITDA: ≈ 12.58X
- Solvency Ratio = 0.22x
Pros:
- Highly diversified business portfolio with an international presence
- Sector with resilient performance in a challenging environment
- Strongs margins against its competitors
Cons:
- Reduction in CAPEX growth vs CAPEX maintenance
- Heavy exposure to China/Asia slowdown by geopolitical tensions
- Weak 2026 guidance
Based on the last report, their normalized annual EPS was ≈ $25.22 USD and its last average ROIC [TTM] was ≈ 9.35%. If an annual average Forward PER 25 is set as a benchmark with an EPS intensity of ± 0.3525x, the potential forward spread target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $755.07 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $630.41 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $505.74 USD
At least, an EPS of $6.2174 USD is required for the next quarter, to keep the metrics.
In other hand, if an annual average Forward EV/EBITDA 15 is set, an EBITDA increases of ± 11.3%, a Net Debt increases of ± 0.11%, a Dividends increase of 0% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.35%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $648.26 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $566.86 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $486.26 USD
Also, if an annual average Forward EV/FCF 25 is set, and FCF rate change of ± 19.0% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.0%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $890.55 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $724.55 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $557.45 USD
Finally, If the previous prices are averaged, the JJPL spread price target would be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $764.63 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $640.42 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $516.49 USD
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
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