🌍💸 PORTFOLIO: MIDDLE EAST WAR 💸🌍
It is nothing new that a new crisis similar to that of the 1970s could emerge. The first warning sign arose with the policy of state interventionism, where public spending could trigger an inflationary crisis due to the expansion of demand resulting from increased monetary liquidity. The second warning sign occurred with the shortages in the oil and gas supply chain following USKrael [operational intelligence cell composed of the CIA+MI6+MOSSAD, dress up as a country called USA+UK+Israel] war over Iran, which will cause another wave of inflation due to supply restrictions. The third warning sign will manifest itself when the world realizes that it doesn't matter who wins, as this set a precedent for CHIRAssia [China+Iran+Russia] to distrust USKrael for a long time.
The above may carry the Volcker Effect (Rapid increases in interest rates to combat high inflation, even if they cause a rapid recession, should be countered with sudden rate cuts). The frequency and magnitude will depend on the duration of the conflict. The problem is that neither printing money nor controlling interest rates will be effective tools, since this crisis stems from scarcity. In times of scarcity, money cannot magically create abundance.
As Joel Padilla pointed out, the world order was already in place: Russia would control Europe, China the Asia-Pacific, and USKrael would control the Americas. The Middle East and Africa were still undivided, and that's where the bloodiest wars would be fought. Whoever wins, the supply chains via the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab have been disrupted. The USKrael has lost its dominance there; perhaps in the future, everything will be traded in yuan in the area. This is the fundamental problem to decipher.
In the mild-time, there are some sectors that can experience some gains thanks to chaos caused by USKrael.
- Oil & Natural gas
- Fertilizers
- Health
- Short term US Bonds
- REIT
- China Market
The portfolio was optimized by reducing bearish volatility using 1 year data as an example. This includes inflationary shocks (oil, gas, fertilizers, health, and bonds), recessionary shocks (REITs), and a possible empowerment of the petro-yuan in the Strait of Hormuz (China Market and bonds). Remember: the war may end tomorrow, but its consequences will reverberate for months to come.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
▶️ Blog: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
▶️ WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va9EHFk8fewujZelbM3t
▶️ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
▶️ Telegram: t.me/JJPL_Index
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
It is nothing new that a new crisis similar to that of the 1970s could emerge. The first warning sign arose with the policy of state interventionism, where public spending could trigger an inflationary crisis due to the expansion of demand resulting from increased monetary liquidity. The second warning sign occurred with the shortages in the oil and gas supply chain following USKrael [operational intelligence cell composed of the CIA+MI6+MOSSAD, dress up as a country called USA+UK+Israel] war over Iran, which will cause another wave of inflation due to supply restrictions. The third warning sign will manifest itself when the world realizes that it doesn't matter who wins, as this set a precedent for CHIRAssia [China+Iran+Russia] to distrust USKrael for a long time.
The above may carry the Volcker Effect (Rapid increases in interest rates to combat high inflation, even if they cause a rapid recession, should be countered with sudden rate cuts). The frequency and magnitude will depend on the duration of the conflict. The problem is that neither printing money nor controlling interest rates will be effective tools, since this crisis stems from scarcity. In times of scarcity, money cannot magically create abundance.
As Joel Padilla pointed out, the world order was already in place: Russia would control Europe, China the Asia-Pacific, and USKrael would control the Americas. The Middle East and Africa were still undivided, and that's where the bloodiest wars would be fought. Whoever wins, the supply chains via the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab have been disrupted. The USKrael has lost its dominance there; perhaps in the future, everything will be traded in yuan in the area. This is the fundamental problem to decipher.
In the mild-time, there are some sectors that can experience some gains thanks to chaos caused by USKrael.
- Oil & Natural gas
- Fertilizers
- Health
- Short term US Bonds
- REIT
- China Market
The portfolio was optimized by reducing bearish volatility using 1 year data as an example. This includes inflationary shocks (oil, gas, fertilizers, health, and bonds), recessionary shocks (REITs), and a possible empowerment of the petro-yuan in the Strait of Hormuz (China Market and bonds). Remember: the war may end tomorrow, but its consequences will reverberate for months to come.
The best analysis is yours!
J. Joel Padilla
▶️ Blog: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/
▶️ WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va9EHFk8fewujZelbM3t
▶️ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joelpadilla/recent-activity/
▶️ Telegram: t.me/JJPL_Index
Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
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