📀 ASML FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 📀
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects.
Based on a sample of the last year [1Q/26 TTM], its average margins have been:
- Gross margin: ≈ 52.6%
- Operating margin: ≈ 34.7%
- EBITDA margin: ≈ 37.8%
- Net margin: ≈ 29.7%
- Debt Net / EBITDA: ≈ 0.0x
Pros:
- Strong revenue and guidance upgrade
- AI-Driven demand acceleration
- Increased share buyback program, which could influence EPS valuations with a healthy net debt
Cons:
- Export control uncertainties
- Variability in free cash flow, which distorts some indicators
- Possible compression of future margins due to competition from companies such as SMEE, Canon or Nikon in the face of the new race in technological development and/or disruption in supply chains
According to the last previous report, their normalized annual EPS was ≈ $30.3 USD and its last average ROIC [TTM] was ≈ 37.8%. If an annual Forward PER 35 is set up as a benchmark with an EPS intensity of ± 0.3414x, the potential forward spread target for the next ≈ 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $1,419.8 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $1,055.8 USD
- Negative: ≈ $691.8 USD
At least, an EPS of $7.08 USD is required for the next quarter, to keep the metrics.
If an annal Forward EV/EBITDA 30 is set, an EBITDA increases of ± 25%, a Net Debt increases of ± 0.00%, a Dividends increase of 0.0% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.00%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $1,574.5 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $1,159.0 USD
- Negative: ≈ $744.0 USD
If an annual average Forward EV/FCF 40 is set, and FCF rate change of ± 26.4% and Shares Outstanding increases of ± 0.0%, the potencial spread price target for the next 12 months could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $1,389.8 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $1,099.8 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $809.8 USD
Finally, the JJPL spread price target would be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $1.461.3 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $1,104.9 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $748.5 USD
Also, according to its current P/S ratio, a possible spread for the next 12 months might be at:
- P/S 16: ≈ $1,632.0 USD
- P/S 8: ≈ $816.1 USD
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J. Joel Padilla
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Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026
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