馃挼 US LONG-TERM BONDS: WHAT'S BEHIND THEM? 馃挼

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馃嚭馃嚫馃挼 US LONG-TERM BONDS: WHAT'S BEHIND THEM? 馃挼馃嚭馃嚫


Analyzing the bond market, especially long-term bonds, provides clear signals about future economic prospects. Currently, the outlook points to an inflationary era, with rising debt and decisions the U.S. government must make. To understand this, it's important to consider bond dynamics: interest rates and prices are inversely correlated. When interest rates rise, prices fall; when interest rates fall, prices rise.

Currently, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to 5.12% (17/05/26), and its price has fallen. In short, this could indicate the following:
- Fear of a new wave of inflation
- Loss of confidence in the U.S. government due to various factors
- A possible competitive depreciation policy

The real causes are mixed. The USKrael war against Iran could disrupt the global supply chain [How to Understand War: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/2026/04/medio-oriente-2026-como-entender-la-guerra.html]. Likewise, the loss of confidence in USD bonds due to increase of debt, and a kind of depreciation, where the Federal Reserve will artificially lower short-term interest rates to reduce the cost of debt [Financial Repression: https://jjplindex.blogspot.com/2026/04/financial-repression-world-war-here-we.html], have dampened expectations of improvement.

However, could be a plot twist. Despite inflationary fears, if the Federal Reserve does not inject liquidity and implement quantitative tightening (QT), this could lead to a rise in the price. Furthermore, if the global economic and financial situation worsens, the West will demand US bonds due to its continued financial dominance.

By the moment, the next hypothetical support level is located near $82.60, with the strongest support at $80.50. The next resistance level could be at $92.15, with the strongest resistance at $101.10. Finally, if a predictive model is established that takes into account other assets such as gold (GDL), the Nasdaq (QQQ), and the real estate sector (XLRE), using 5 years of data, the hypothetical one-year price targets could be:
- Optimistic: ≈ $94.18 USD
- Neutral: ≈ $86.11 USD
- Pessimistic: ≈ $79.30 USD


¡The best analysis is yours!


J. Joel Padilla
▶️ Telegram: t.me/JJPL_Index




Copyright: Joel Padilla 2026


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